Dispelling the myth of EV lifecycle emissions
September 09, 2024
While certain myths about battery electric vehicles (BEVs) persist, science continues to prevail to highlight the difference in cradle-to-grave carbon emissions for BEVs compared to ICE vehicles. I often see people share false information online, passing these opinions as fact – and this happens often when the topic is electrification, a very polarizing topic in today’s political climate.
One myth I’d like to focus on is that when factoring “cradle to grave” (total lifecycle) emissions, EVs emit more carbon than ICE vehicles.
This myth takes many forms. Here are a few examples of these kind of erroneous statements:
“Electric vehicles have little or no CO2 advantage over the car you already drive.”
“Driving an electric car simply displaces carbon emissions from roads to distant power stations.”
“Electric vehicles actually emit more carbon emissions than ICE vehicles when you factor in the impact of mining and battery production.”
I wanted to take the opportunity on this World EV Day to share some of the science on this topic and prove that the full lifecycle emissions profile of a battery electric vehicle is significantly better than that of an ICE vehicle.
Misconceptions perpetuating the myth
Arguments against the benefits of fleet electrification commonly use historical data and “facts” about the lifecycle emissions of EVs to make their point. Often, they are citing figures that are no longer true today. Take the declining trend in the carbon footprint from manufacturing an EV battery.
| 2019 | 220 pounds of CO2 equivalent per kWh |
| 2021 | 132 pounds of CO2 equivalent per kWh |
| 2022 | 90 pounds of CO2 equivalent per kWh (location dependent) |
Those numbers are going to vary slightly from region to region, but it points to an undeniable trend that EV battery manufacturing is getting cleaner every year. So, if someone is using 2012 data to make their case about total EV lifecycle emissions today, it’s easy to see how their assertion doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Assumptions of power grid source
Many of the faulty claims surrounding EVs and lifecycle emissions assume that all electricity generated to manufacture and power an EV comes from the dirtiest source available, such as coal.
While it is true that China and India rely on coal for 61% and 71% of their energy production respectively, those are the outliers, not the norm. The U.K. for example, has one of the cleanest power grids as they rely heavily on renewable energy sources for their electricity. In 2023, 51% of the U.K.’s electricity came from renewable sources, and less than 1% from coal. In North America, the energy supply is currently comprised of 80% fossil fuels. However, there is a downward trend that will see that number drop to less than 50% by 2050.
The facts on EV total lifecycle emissions
This chart showing the total lifecycle emissions broken down by geography helps to make the case for EV’s - showing that, even in geographies like China with the “dirtiest” energy sources, EVs still emit fewer cradle to grave CO2 emissions than ICE vehicles. The difference in the U.K. is striking.
Quite often, people will point out how getting an EV on the road has a heavier carbon footprint than with an ICE vehicle, and the data here certainly backs that up. This is due to the CO2 emitted in the labour-intensive process of mining and processing the minerals required to manufacture EV batteries. However, once they are put into use, the CO2 produced by ICE vehicles easily surpasses that of EVs over the total lifecycle.
Source: Kelly, Jarod C., Elgowainy, Amgad, Isaac, Raphael, Ward, Jacob, Islam, Ehsan, Rousseau, Aymeric, Sutherland, Ian, Wallington, Timothy J., Alexander, Marcus, Muratori, Matteo, Franklin, Matthew, Adams, Jesse, & Rustagi, Neha. Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2020) and Future (2030-2035) Technologies. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1875764
This chart shows the comparison in total lifecycle CO2 emissions related in 2020 to future state technology (expected to be available in 2030‒2050). As you can see, 2020 total lifecycle emissions for a small gasoline SUV were estimated at 429 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per mile. A similar size 300-mile range EV produced just over half that total at 221 grams. The other striking point this chart makes is that the gap in total lifecycle emissions between ICE vehicles and EVs is only going to widen in the future.
The above chart is from Argonne National Laboratory’s report, Cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of U.S. light-duty vehicle-fuel pathways: a greenhouse gas emissions and economic assessment of current (2020) and future (2030-2035) technologies. This gives yet another snapshot of how BEVs are lower emitting now and will be even more so with the increased adoption of cleaner energy in the future.
Factors contributing to the widening gap
With each passing year, the emissions gap between EVs and ICE grows larger and larger. The increasingly cleaner energy grid is easily one of the biggest reasons for this. Here are a couple of other significant contributing factors.
“Payback” time continues to decrease – Payback time refers to the measurement of time (or distance traveled) it takes for an EV to become lower emitting than an ICE vehicle. According to Bloomberg, an EV in the U.S. becomes cleaner after about 2.2 years or approximately 25,000 miles on the road. It is estimated that by 2030, that number will drop to just one year of driving.
The emergence of battery recycling – EV battery production is one of the biggest reasons for an EV’s larger carbon footprint. Today, in Canada, the U.S., and Europe, only 2% to 11% of lithium-ion batteries find their way to a recycling facility when they die. However, according to a 2023 Spherical Insights & Consulting research report, the global lithium-ion battery recycling market is expected grow from (USD) $5.25 billion in 2022 to $26.56 billion by 2032.
Non-driving impact on global emissions
An emerging trend with EV ownership involves the installation of bi-directional charging infrastructure that enables people to use their EV to provide power to their home in the event of a power-outage. Today this stands as a nascent technology but early deployments such as this vehicle-to-home (V2H) Intelligent Backup Power shows that it produces less emissions than the alternative fossil fuel burning generators.
In this example, according to Ford, the F-150 Lightning electric pickup has up to 131 kWh of electric energy storage which they suggest can power an average-sized home for up to 10 days. A diesel-powered home generator will produce approximately 160 pounds of CO2 per million BTU. Even the cleaner option of a natural gas-powered generator still produces 117 pounds per million BTU.
A matter of fact
There’s no question that the discussion surrounding BEVs and ICE vehicles can be divisive, and there will undoubtedly be strongly held opinions on all sides. However, the inescapable truth is that BEVs emit significantly less CO2 emissions than ICE vehicles over their total lifecycle.
That’s not my opinion. It’s a matter of fact.
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